Legal Definitions - chance-of-survival doctrine

The chance-of-survival doctrine is a legal principle applied in certain wrongful death lawsuits. It allows a plaintiff (the person bringing the lawsuit) to seek compensation even when it's not absolutely certain that the defendant's actions directly caused the death. Instead of proving the defendant *definitively* caused the death, the plaintiff only needs to demonstrate that the defendant's negligent conduct significantly reduced the victim's existing chance of survival, making it a substantial factor in the ultimate outcome. This doctrine recognizes that even a small chance of survival is valuable and that negligently diminishing it can be a compensable harm.

Here are some examples illustrating the chance-of-survival doctrine:

• Example 1: Delayed Cancer Diagnosis

  A patient visits their doctor complaining of persistent, unusual symptoms. The doctor performs a cursory examination and dismisses the symptoms as minor, failing to order necessary diagnostic tests. Several months later, the patient seeks a second opinion and is diagnosed with an aggressive form of cancer that has now progressed significantly. Medical experts testify that if the cancer had been diagnosed and treated promptly during the initial visit, the patient would have had a 40% chance of survival. However, due to the delay, that chance plummeted to less than 5%, and the patient ultimately succumbs to the disease.

  This example illustrates the chance-of-survival doctrine because the patient's family would not need to prove that the doctor's negligence *guaranteed* the patient's death, or that the patient *would have certainly survived* with proper care. Instead, they would argue that the doctor's failure to diagnose was a substantial factor in the death because it negligently eliminated a significant, existing 40% chance of survival.

• Example 2: Emergency Room Negligence

  A person is brought to the emergency room after a severe car accident, suffering from internal bleeding. While the medical team is aware of the critical nature of the injuries, due to a mix-up in communication and a delay in transferring the patient to surgery, precious time is lost. By the time the patient is finally operated on, their condition has deteriorated beyond recovery, and they die on the operating table. Expert witnesses later testify that had the surgery commenced within the first hour of arrival, the patient would have had a 35% chance of survival, but the delay reduced that chance to almost zero.

  Here, the chance-of-survival doctrine would apply because the family could argue that the hospital's negligence in delaying surgery was a substantial factor in the patient's death. They would not need to prove the patient *would have definitely survived* the surgery, only that the hospital's actions negligently deprived the patient of a meaningful chance to live.

• Example 3: Post-Surgical Monitoring Failure

  A patient undergoes a successful heart bypass surgery and is recovering in the intensive care unit (ICU). The patient's care plan requires hourly monitoring of vital signs and specific post-operative indicators. However, due to severe understaffing, a nurse misses several critical monitoring checks over a period of hours. During this time, the patient develops a rapidly progressing post-surgical complication that, if caught early, had a 60% chance of being successfully treated. By the time the complication is finally discovered, it is too advanced, and the patient dies.

  This scenario demonstrates the chance-of-survival doctrine because the patient's estate could argue that the hospital's negligence (due to understaffing and missed monitoring) was a substantial factor in the death. They would contend that the hospital's actions eliminated the patient's significant chance of recovering from the complication, even if recovery was not an absolute certainty.